What is not being said about the Wuhan coronavirus.
Over the past weeks there have been conflicting news information on the coronavirus. From reports that this may be a pending pandemic of massive proportions, to reports and complaints from China, that the U.S. is fueling panic.
I think both sides may be informed, but are providing incorrect information that does not paint the whole scope of the spread, possible future mortality, the cover up of numbers, the increased containment problems, and solutions for the countries with a few infected, some hope based on control, proper quarantining and for the time, the ability to treat those affected.
Coronavirus whistleblower, Doctor Li Wen Liang is now being treated for the virus. Li warned friends about the SARS like virus in December and was rounded up by police for spreading the rumor, and then forced to sign a letter about his spreading a rumor and disrupting social order.
As the Virus started to explode, they started quarantining. Dr Li and his family are now sick and he is so weak he can’t speak due to shortness of breath and comunicated by text. Some of the Chinese Government and population now looked at The Dr. favorably, Too little to late.
The numbers coming out of china do not match the rate of spread of the virus. China has said they are now total number of cases in the epicenter of the outbreak to 16,678. Computer models run a week ago put the real number around 75,000 not 16,500.
How could the numbers be so different? well there are a few factors. First is as warning from the doctor in December, the real number would “disrupting social order.”
What are the clues it is a lot worse then presented? The most obvious was the push to build 4 hospitals (fast built structures, more quarantine cells then hospitals) in 10-20 days.
Second is how numbers do not match projections and how they are being explained. What is put forward is out of 16,678 infected 490 have died. What is not being said is the real number to evaluate is TOTAL DEATHS 492 to TOTAL RECOVERED 907. The 2% rate was an early estimate by WHO. This is correct if out of the current 24,552 cases all recover except those 492 deaths.
Death to recovered is 54% mortality, and a vaccine is not expected to be ready for at least a year.
Third, the hospitals were overwhelmed and people were ordered home or sent home if not critical. If they died at home without being tested, they were officially categorized as dying of “Ordinary Pneumonia”.
As of today, news is trickling out that emergency wards are becoming mortuaries and the crematorium is too busy. Only admitted patients are tested, many are being turned away, and the government of China is now providing only 2000 testing kits a day for the entire Wuhan area.
The other bad news is that since you can show no symptoms for up to 14 days and still transmit the virus, it appears we are just in the starting phase of it’s growth and spread.
I can hear you saying “how horrible” “How could they do that” “people need to know”… well just to point fingers.. in 1918 The world was in the middle of a giant influenza pandemic. Like this one, the rate reported was about 2%. in the end out of 1.75 billion people, 50-100 million died. What was this outbreak called? The Spanish Flu.
It was called the Spanish Flu because Spain was reporting real figures, so it appeared to be ground zero. In truth The U.S. and other countries were actively suppressing the real numbers. During the World War I, they did not want the outbreak and deaths on the home front to break moral of the soldiers. So to protect it, the governments intentionally lied and suppressed the true figures.
The good for now, most countries have stopped flights to China, and set up quarantines at this point to prevent or slow the spread. This is a stop gap that may allow better staging of care.
People in China and some in other countries have purchased masks, a lot of them surgical masks that pull over the ears. These are useless, made to stop fluid splash in surgery, but not fine enough to stop a 0.3 – 1.0 micron virus. They also after 10-15 minutes soak up breath humidity and start wicking contaminants. The NIH (National Institute of Health) has evaluated masks and even using the proper mask, if improperly fitted, they offer 75% protection. The masks are the N95/P95 N/P100 masks. The mouth is not the only issue, as a contaminated hand rubbing the eyes can infect.
As another mysterious event, just as the Virus was going global, the FDA warned Purell, to stop claiming hand sanitizers can combat Ebola, the flu, other diseases.
So what can you do for yourself at this point? How worried should you be?
Depends on if it starts to spread in your area. Simple protections, don’t shake hands, use latex/vinyl gloves, most important when using sprays like Lysol, read the instructions. You do not just spray and wipe up. Most sprays require time on a surface, more then you would expect.
- To Deodorize: Spray on surfaces as needed.
- To Sanitize: Surfaces must remain wet for 10 seconds then allow to air dry.
- To Disinfect: Surfaces must remain wet for 3 minutes then allow to air dry.
- For Norovirus, Hepatitis A virus, Adenovirus 2, Fusarium solani and Mycobacterium bovis BCG (Quant tuberculosis) surfaces must remain wet for 10 minutes then allow to air dry.
No need for laundry sanitizer additives, if your worried just turn up your water heater. standard 120 degrees is fine..
And last. Limit exposure as much as possible. Stock up food, cook at home and stay in.
Your coronavirus points and historical analysis are well taken. It took took stock market dive to force the government to publicly recognize this crisis. What tale will they spin next? Congratulations on being out front on this issue.